Leisure … more than a word, it's a lifestyle

Orlando, of course. Michael Phelps was in Orlando for the Disney parade yesterday. Main Street was pretty crowded about an hour before the parade as Disney periodically announced that Michael Phelps would be there. 

Michael’s a popular guy at the moment. On Thursday he was in New York City filming for a cameo role in the HBO series “Entourage” and next Wednesday he’ll be in Chicago taping Oprah Winfrey’s show at Millennium Park. Add to that the fact he’ll be a presenter at 2008 Video Music Awards on Sept 7 and it looks like he’s going to get little R&R as he learns new media skills.

So is the man who eats roughly 8,000 to 10,000 calories a day, including “lots of pizza and pasta” going to cut back on his intake? Well I guess he’s in good hands going to see Oprah.

I was recently reading an article that stated that the millionaires club has grown by 600,000 people. Apparently, the number of people with at least $1 million in assets passed the 10 million mark for the first time in 2007. The combined wealth of these millionaires grew to $41 TRILLION, an increase of 9% in 12 months. That means each person’s average wealth is at the $4 million mark – the highest number ever.

The ranks of “The Club” are growing fastest in India, China and Brazil but despite this, the United States is still home to every one in three millionaires. All told, there are 600,000 more millionaires this year than last and that represents a 6% population increase.

Are you one of them? We’d hope so.

What’s that about a recession again?

Much has been made about the recent hike in gas prices and that the tourism industry is suffering because people aren’t getting in their cars or on planes because the price of gas has gone up and it’s now more expensive to get from point A to point B.

Are we really being that hard done by?

My contention is that gas prices really aren’t that bad. Sure no-one likes to pay more than they previously did for anything but gas really isn’t so expensive when you compare it to other products:

PRICES PER GALLON

Diet Snapple  $ 10.32 

Lipton Iced Tea $ 9.52

Gatorade $ 10.17

Brake Fluid $ 33.60

White Out $ 25.42

Vick’s Nyquill $178.13

Pepto Bismol $ 123.20

Evian Water $ 21.19

So America seems to be in a state of panic because of the rising price of gasoline and all the talk show and radio hosts think that we’re on the verge of mass riots and that long, dark economic days are upon us.

In 1955 gas was 29 cents per gallon…an era of big cars, big engines and so called cheap fuel. Fact is that in 1955 one dollar was worth a lot more than today’s dollar. Fact is that if we were to use today’s dollars then gasoline would have cost $1.76 per gallon in 1955.

So, are we worse off than in 1955. The answer is “No.” In 1955 people were poorer than they are today and $1.76 had a bigger impact on the pocket than it does today. If we then take into account inflation and changes in disposable income then a gallon should really cost $5.17 today.

 Now let’s look at the real costs to a household. In 1998 a gallon sold for $1.03 per gallon which is the equivalent of $1.35 today. Now 1998 was a unique time and gas was at being sold at a low price… in 1981 it was $1.38 or $4.38 after adjustments but people are still looking at the price 10 years ago and saying it’s far too much.

Reality is though that the average household is now spending $136 more on gasoline per month than it was in 1998 but the amount of disposable income per household has increased much faster than pump prices at $800 per month.

So, all in all, while no-one enjoys the higher gas prices, they really aren’t as bad as most people think. And, gas is still cheaper than a gallon of Evian water… and did you know, Evian spelt backwards = naive.

Well the 2008 Olympics in Beijing are drawing to an end as I write this and it’s been a wonderful occassion. I have to confess that for the last 20+ years I really haven’t paid much attention to what’s been going on as far as the Olympics are concerned but something happened to change that. My daughters took an interest! Who’d have thought it… my two teenagers actually gave up their i-pods, their myspace, their facebook, the internet and much of the other stuff that continues to bemuse me and they actually took an interest in a sporting event. Evidence enough for me that miracles do happen.

Looking back over the last three weeks there has been much to enjoy; the fantastic opening ceremony, the overwhelming brilliance of Michael Phelps in the swimming even despite the fact he now has more medals than Mark Spitz, my boyhood hero, mainly because his birthday is the same as mine , the sheer speed of Jamaican Usain Bolt in 100 meters and 200 meters, Great Britain winning their biggest number of gold medals in 100 years and amusingly, for the first time ever that I can recall, the way the American media have tried to portray the US as still being top of the world by counting the total amount of medals won instead of the customary method of number of gold medals.

Amusing as that maybe, it’s been one of the best Olympics ever for me. We’ve seen Lopez Lomong carry the American flag into the Opening Ceremonies…what a story that is… a young man who spent a decade in a Kenyan refugee camp and came to the Olympics as a world class runner representing his adopted country and then, Natalie du Toit of South Africa, a marathon swimmer despite her left leg being amputated at the knee after being stuck by a car seven years ago, who is now the first amputee to compete in the Olympics.

Above all the simple pleasure of being able to enjoy the event and talk about it with my kids is really a time to treasure .  When the meaning of parenthood truly comes home. A time of life to simply sit back and enjoy what happens around you and not to you. One that when all things are considered, could possibly never come again. And of course, when you’re in that kind of mood, you think even more deeply… of the vacations and of the family time that we’ve personally had and of the many families that have had similar experiences while staying in a Florida Leisure Vacation Home.  So, if you’re one of those people or one of those families…I’d love to hear from you.  Visit http://www.floridaleisureblog.com/ and reply to this topic or share your story on http://www.floridaleisure.com/  It’s people that matter and it’s never been clearer to me.

So after days of media coverage Tropical Storm Fay breezed through Orlando with barely a murmur. The main event for those of us in the path in Central Florida was from 2pm to 7pm but frankly, it was nothing more than a slightly windy rainy day.

Which brings me to the point of this blog. How much has this fiasco cost the economy? Over the weekend the media were hyping this up, encouraging people to stock up on supplies and to generally behave as if this was a category 5 storm. Please.

The problem with this hyperbole is that next time there is a genuine threat to the area, some people just won’t listen. They’ll treat it as a minor inconvienience and do nothing. I don’t mean to trivialise this but the coverage on the TV and in the press was way over the top. I mean…people actually missed Dr. Phil for two days running while those in the know pontificated about approaching 50-70 mile an hour winds…only they weren’t and they were never were likely to be. Go figure.

But coming back to the economy and the ever increasing national debt, far too many people for my liking used it as an excuse for a day off. The schools were shut, construction projects have been shut down for days and local government came to a stand still. Quite pathetic. Meanwhile the Police, the fire service and the hospitals carried on. Even the attraction parks remained open as normal and the Disney parade went ahead.

Yes, airlines had to cancel flights…and that’s understandable but c’mon people get real, this was not a major storm and it shouldn’t have been an excuse for people who could have worked not to. And on that note, I’m pleased to report that all my staff refused to be beaten by it or even that concerned. They all came in and did their job and made the guests staying in our vacation homes happy. It’s called having a backbone and I’m proud of them. So… next time Mr. Media, please report it as it is and as it will be. Winds of 20 mph or even 50 mph aren’t very devastating…and while rain can lead to flooding in some areas, try telling us who exactly is at risk from this. After all, it’s not like you didn’t have three hurricanes in 2004 to warm up.

I had to run to my local Target last night at 7:30pm and was amazed that I had to park miles away as the parking lot was jammed.  I have in fact never, ever seen the parking lot so full.  When I walked into the store I was amazed by the amount of parents with young children … then I realized August 18 is tomorrow … back to school.  Well I am sorry, all of you that went shopping last night for school supplies, taking your young children with you are bad parents in my book.  It’s not like August 18 was a surprise … you have had almost 3 months to get prepared.  Shouldn’t those kids have been getting a bath and a nice early bedtime to refresh them for the big day? Shame on you all.

Wow…what a weekend… Michael Phelps breaks the Olympic record held previously by Mark Spitz and now has 8 gold medals from 8 events. The fact that he shattered 7 world records is something of a footnote but the manner of his win in the butterfly will go down in history as a defining moment if you admire champions.

I have absolutely no idea how he managed to pull that win off in the butterfly but the length of a fingernail was the difference between history being created and history being matched. Such are the fine lines in sport… and in life. One of my favorite quotes of all times is “Most people give up just when they’re about to achieve success” and that last stroke that Phelps made is the greatest example of why you should never ever give up no matter what happens.

And then we had the men’s 100M… and all I can say is “Wow” again. Just study this picture:

Anyone would think this was a much longer race but it wasn’t… it was the 100M and Usain Bolt literally destroyed the field with a new world record time of 9.69 seconds. One can only imagine what time he would have set if he hadn’t eased up at the 80 meter mark! One of the truly outstanding performances of all time.

The overall real estate market in Florida has not fared well since the subprime mortgage crisis reared its ugly head. Miami topped the American Chronicle’s Worst 25 Housing Predictor Forecast in both 2007 and 2008, and was cited as possibly undergoing “the worst housing crash in national history.” But the market outlook in other parts of the state might not be quite so bleak. Just under 250 miles north of ill-fated Miami lies Orlando, the city of studios and theme parks, which is considered to be the strongest and most stable real estate market in the state.

Orlando is the county seat of Orange County in central Florida, and was home to 220,186 residents as of 2006, according to U.S. census estimates. It is surrounded by an abundance of tourist attractions, including SeaWorld, the Walt Disney World Resort and Universal Studios. It is also home to the University of Central Florida, the state’s second-largest university. The Orlando-Kissimmee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is the third-largest MSA in Florida after Miami and Tampa.
Florida’s housing market in general may be due for a recovery, according to the 2008 Fund Real Estate Forecast, commissioned by Attorneys’ Title Insurance Fund, Inc. The forecast shows that the state’s real estate market “flattened out in spring 2007, before the subprime mortgage crisis in August knocked markets down another 10 percent across the state. Since then the housing market has flattened and is expected to begin to recover during the next several years,” according to Reuters.

Orlando may be near the front of that recovery wave in Florida, as its market has remained stronger than those of other cities in the state. “[The forecast] shows that Orlando continues to be the strongest residential real estate market in the state because of its large share of fast-growing industries, such as tourism, healthcare, education and defense manufacturing,” according to Reuters. If this continues to be the case, savvy investors might stand to profit by getting in before the market begins to recover in earnest. Despite being the “strongest” market in the state, Orlando is still solidly in a buyer’s market and investors may comes across some potentially profitable deals in the area.

The unemployment rate in the city is 5.3 percent as of June, slightly below the national unemployment rate of 5.5 percent at that time, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A year prior, Orlando’s unemployment rate was significantly lower at 3.9 percent, compared to the national average of 4.6 percent.

Although Orlando may be weathering the housing crisis better than other Floridian cities, it has still felt the effects of the crash. The median sales price of homes in Orlando decreased by 3.94 percent between June and July 2008, from $216,000 to $207,500, according to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association (ORRA). In July 2007, the median sales price in the city was $250,000, marking a 17 percent decrease over the past year, according to ORRA.

So far this year, property sales in Orlando are down by 24.52 percent compared to the same time last year. “However that gap is expected to close by year-end as the number of homes currently under contract (3,258) is 26.72 percent greater than the number of homes that were under contract in July 2007 (2,571). Pending sales for the past three months have been greater than their 2007 counterparts,” according to ORRA.

The affordability index in the city is strong at 103.8 percent as of July 2008, according to ORRA. The affordability index documents the ability of a family earning the area’s median income to afford a home at the median price. For example, an affordability index of 95 percent indicates that a family earning the median income is 5 percent below the required income to buy a home at the median price. Since the affordability index in Orlando is over 100 percent, families earning the median income earn more than is necessary to qualify for such a purchase. This means that there are likely to be more prospective homebuyers coming onto the scene in the area. It is important to note that affordability is lower for first-time homebuyers, at 73.81 percent.

Orlando is a prime tourist location for both domestic and international travelers, and holiday rental properties are likely to do well. 45,907,000 domestic visitors came to Orlando in 2007, a 1.8 percent increase from 2006, and 53 percent of these visitors came from within Florida itself. 2,838,000 visitors came to Orlando from international points of origin, a 5.7 percent increase from 2006. Of international visitors, 28 percent originated from Canada.

Lodging occupancy rates in Metro Orlando decreased from June 2007 to June 2008 by 3.8 percent, to 70.4 percent, according to the Orlando/Orange County Convention & Visitors Bureau. Lodging occupancy rates in North and South Orlando decreased by 4.9 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, while the rates in Central Orlando increased by 0.7 percent during the same time period.

The largest percentage (17.06 percent) of active single-family listings fall in the $200,000-$249,999 range, while the largest percentage (14.02 percent) of active condo listings are in the $120,000-$139,999 range, according to ORRA.

There are several new condos planned over the next [two] years and a few condo conversions taking place in the downtown area. Be wise when shopping for a condo as the market seems over saturated.

Certain areas of Orlando may offer better stability than others, such as some neighborhoods in West Orlando. “The rest of Metro Orlando may have an average of 5 percent of all homes for sale, but in the Lake Mann, Sunset Lake and Clear Lake areas, only 1.4 percent of homes are on the market,” according to an October 2007 article in the Orlando Sentinel. Houses in these middle-class neighborhoods rarely come up for sale and, when they do, are often sold to friends or family members, according to the article. Investors interested in properties more likely to retain their values might consider seeking out available properties in these areas.

If you need some guidance contact our own Nigel Worrall at 407 870 1600 or www.floridaleisurerealty.com.

I wonder what the real reason is … be interesting to see if Disney World follows suit.  Also what it means to the huge MickeyDs in Downtown Disney and halfway round the inner roadway by the Boardwalk?

LOS ANGELES – The Walt Disney Co. is closing down all three McDonald’s outlets at its Disneyland resort in Anaheim, Calif., on Sept. 2 as part of a planned refurbishment, the company said.

Disney said the move is not related to its push, announced in 2006, to promote healthier eating choices for children at restaurants at its parks.

“We make enhancements throughout the park on a regular basis,” Disneyland spokeswoman Lisa Haines said Friday. “We’ll continue to offer guests a wide variety of food choices.”

Disney announced its healthy food guidelines the same year it wrapped up a cross-promotional relationship with McDonald’s Corp., with the last joint marketing campaigns on “Cars” and “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.”

There is still a McDonald’s outlet in each of Disney’s four theme parks in Orlando, Fla., and one at Disneyland Resort Paris, the company said.

Two years ago, Disney announced a plan to eliminate added trans fats from food served at its parks by the end of 2007, and the company said it had met that goal.

On Monday, the nonprofit Center for Science in the Public Interest said 93 percent of kids’ meals at 13 major restaurant chains, including McDonald’s, had too many calories

I’ve just finished watching “Gene Simmons Family Jewels” Season 3 episode called “HomeSick” where Gene surprises Shannon Tweed with a little piece of Canada to call her own. All is going well, the rose petals are laid, the bottle of wine is opened, the chocolate fondue and strawberries are ready….. and then click…. the front door opens and another family walks in. Disaster.

Being in the vacation home business I can tell you that this is our worst nightmare. Double booking a house. It happens sometimes but fortunately extremely rarely. In this case Gene had purchased the house and knew nothing about the renters that were coming in until they arrived!

The episode is very amusing and non more so than when the renters decide to buy a gift for disturbing Gene and Shannon… nothing less than the same deer head that they had both been disgusted at seeing in a local shop.

Nigel Worrall and Gene Simmons

If you haven’t seen the program yet, do so. It’s addictive. And having met Gene a couple of months back, I’m sort of tempted to wind him up by renting his home next year in the same way he wound Shannon up by telling her he’d already rented the house for the Olympics in 2010! Ever the businessman.